Pazz & Jop/Jackin' Pop predictions
Dec. 25th, 2006 08:52 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
koganbotAs my Christmas gift to fellow fanatics, here are my predictions for the two big critic polls (and one smaller one):
SINGLES
"Crazy" wins decisively. My guess a few weeks ago would have been "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" fighting for second, with "I Bet You Look Good On The Dance Floor" a dark horse. But "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" are mostly absent from the magazine year-ends I've seen, so now I'm thinking that "Dance Floor" will be what's high up. This doesn't upset me too much, since "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" sometimes grate on me, and I like Alex Turner's engaging come-hither-and-fuck-off petulance. Always a sucker for a mixed message, I am. But the Arctic Monkeys lack popular music's basic throb and voluptuousness, and I'm no fan of the dour puritanism they represent. Also, some people might assign the song to last year, which won't hurt on P&J, which tallies holdovers, but might wound it on Jackin' Pop. Cassie's "Me & U" has throb and juice while managing to build itself around a spare riff that's more icy than the Arctics. It's the song of the year, state of the art, imposing, anxious, seductive. Didn't quite place on my own list (I want warmer stuff), but it sure deserves to win. But probably will cool its heels in the lower half of the top ten, if even there. Although Lil Jon's "Snap Yo Fingers" and Yung Joc's "It's Goin' Down" were the two most-played rap songs on the hip-hop/r&b stations, neither has a snowball's chance, though the latter's better than anything else I've mentioned. T.I.'s "What You Know" will do respectably. "Do respectably" means it will show up on the list but I have no clue where. Ditto Chamillionaire's "Ridin'." I have even less of a clue how rock 'n' emo stuff like "Over My Head," "I Write Sins Not Tragedies," and "Welcome to the Black Parade" will do. Bouncy's "Irreplaceable" might finish strong, but probably came along too late. Fergie won't place as high as she deserves, and the worthy JoJo will be completely overlooked. In the last couple of years Gretchen and B&R and Miranda and Brad have all placed mainstream country onto P&J. Won't happen this year from them or anyone else, unless you count the ex-country Dixies, who might sneak into the top 40. Maybe I'm underestimating the prospects of Carrie Underwood's great "Before He Cheats," but I doubt that most critics noticed. Nor did they notice teenpop or Europop or Eurodance* or techno or house, at least not enough to get a single on the P&J chart. Nor did they notice adult contemporary. Or urban AC. Or jazz. Or metal. Or Christian. Or international pop except maybe Shakira. Or dancehall except maybe Sean Paul and maybe maybe maybe Cham. Or reggaeton. (Obviously many of us did notice these categories and might even vote songs from 'em, but those votes'll get lost.)
*Will the Knife get any singles on the board? I don't have an intuitive feel for this, but I don't think so.
All this is on the assumption that Jackin' Pop has a large turnout. If not, and its demographics are more towards bloggers and message board types (may well be), its top 40 will skew towards indie rock and weirdo dance pop, helping stuff like "I Bet You Look Good On The Dance Floor" and Lily Allen's "Smile" and the Knife and "Let's Make Love And Listen Death From Above" but also helping a lot of indie rock crap.
ALBUMS
I've got this figured out. No one wins.
I thought Dylan would get it by default, but Modern Times isn't showing up high on magazine lists. Which probably leaves the spot open for the Arctic Monkeys, though to my ears Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not has only one real good song, with the rest ranging from OK to not bad to so what. I've never heard Joanna Newsom, and the people who like her are sure doing a bad job of making her seem fun. And then there's a whole bunch of other indie I-don't-know-who and I-don't-know-what. TV On The Radio. The Hold Steady. Raconteurs. Flaming Lips. Yeah Yeah Yeahs. Sufjan. Neko Case. Jenny Lewis. Cat Power. CSS. Damned if I can predict 'em, though I don't see this year's Hold Steady doing as well as last year's. I don't expect any of the standard respectable rock guys (Yorke, Beck, Springsteen, Young, Buckingham) to do real well, but then I'm often surprised here. Personally thought Springsteen's voice was too dry and musclebound on The Seeger Sessions, but he'll place, probably. Ghostface Killah and The Clipse are the great nonwhite hopes; think the first might be too crowded and daunting to go top five (too crowded and daunting for me, anyway), the second too late in the year. T.I. is too much the Dirty South. Again, no idea how My Chemical Romance and Lily Allen will do, curious to find out. Also, there's no real precedent for how the Dixie Chicks'll do.
As for the Nashville Scene's Country Critics Poll, again I'm at a loss, though my guess is the Dixie Chicks win both categories without any real competition but maybe without the numbers Lee Ann Womack pulled last year.* Carrie Underwood's dynamite "Before He Cheats" deserves to give "Not Ready To Make Nice" a run for the money, but it probably will finish in the distance, second or third. Maybe Alan Jackson pulls a surprise in both singles and albums, since he's gettin' rock 'n' dance guys like me who usually find him a snooze. After that I've no idea. Maybe some dead Cash-ins, or live Rosannes if enough voters decide she's country. Maybe Dierks is on the rise. Jessi Colter's comeback is as interesting as Loretta's was a couple of years ago, but too few noticed. I think she'll place somewhere. (How's that for an emphatic prediction?) I prefer Jennings fils, actually, but unlike last year he's not getting a single in the top ten. You can't count on country critics to embrace L.A. sleaze rock. Toby Keith and Montgomery Gentry put out great stuff, but they're too unkempt to get huge critical support. And Tim and Faith are too much the other way. Don't know if the people who always vote Drive-By Truckers will think that a mediocre Drive-By Truckers alb is as worthy as a good one. There's no Gary Allan this year to draw voters in from both mainstream and alt. Not sure how much Mindy Smith, Neko Case, and Jenny Lewis are on the country-critic landscape. The pleasing singer-songwriter ex-teenpop Wreckers are something of a wild card. (Newbie Taylor Swift is better than the Wreckers on all counts - singing, songwriting, and being teenish and poppy - but is probably too catchy and winsome for the voters.)
*But last year the Scene didn't even print the numbers, so I don't know how large Womack's victory actually was. Leaving off the numbers feels really dishonest. Remind me to write Geoff and urge him to insist on numbers this time.
SINGLES
"Crazy" wins decisively. My guess a few weeks ago would have been "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" fighting for second, with "I Bet You Look Good On The Dance Floor" a dark horse. But "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" are mostly absent from the magazine year-ends I've seen, so now I'm thinking that "Dance Floor" will be what's high up. This doesn't upset me too much, since "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" sometimes grate on me, and I like Alex Turner's engaging come-hither-and-fuck-off petulance. Always a sucker for a mixed message, I am. But the Arctic Monkeys lack popular music's basic throb and voluptuousness, and I'm no fan of the dour puritanism they represent. Also, some people might assign the song to last year, which won't hurt on P&J, which tallies holdovers, but might wound it on Jackin' Pop. Cassie's "Me & U" has throb and juice while managing to build itself around a spare riff that's more icy than the Arctics. It's the song of the year, state of the art, imposing, anxious, seductive. Didn't quite place on my own list (I want warmer stuff), but it sure deserves to win. But probably will cool its heels in the lower half of the top ten, if even there. Although Lil Jon's "Snap Yo Fingers" and Yung Joc's "It's Goin' Down" were the two most-played rap songs on the hip-hop/r&b stations, neither has a snowball's chance, though the latter's better than anything else I've mentioned. T.I.'s "What You Know" will do respectably. "Do respectably" means it will show up on the list but I have no clue where. Ditto Chamillionaire's "Ridin'." I have even less of a clue how rock 'n' emo stuff like "Over My Head," "I Write Sins Not Tragedies," and "Welcome to the Black Parade" will do. Bouncy's "Irreplaceable" might finish strong, but probably came along too late. Fergie won't place as high as she deserves, and the worthy JoJo will be completely overlooked. In the last couple of years Gretchen and B&R and Miranda and Brad have all placed mainstream country onto P&J. Won't happen this year from them or anyone else, unless you count the ex-country Dixies, who might sneak into the top 40. Maybe I'm underestimating the prospects of Carrie Underwood's great "Before He Cheats," but I doubt that most critics noticed. Nor did they notice teenpop or Europop or Eurodance* or techno or house, at least not enough to get a single on the P&J chart. Nor did they notice adult contemporary. Or urban AC. Or jazz. Or metal. Or Christian. Or international pop except maybe Shakira. Or dancehall except maybe Sean Paul and maybe maybe maybe Cham. Or reggaeton. (Obviously many of us did notice these categories and might even vote songs from 'em, but those votes'll get lost.)
*Will the Knife get any singles on the board? I don't have an intuitive feel for this, but I don't think so.
All this is on the assumption that Jackin' Pop has a large turnout. If not, and its demographics are more towards bloggers and message board types (may well be), its top 40 will skew towards indie rock and weirdo dance pop, helping stuff like "I Bet You Look Good On The Dance Floor" and Lily Allen's "Smile" and the Knife and "Let's Make Love And Listen Death From Above" but also helping a lot of indie rock crap.
ALBUMS
I've got this figured out. No one wins.
I thought Dylan would get it by default, but Modern Times isn't showing up high on magazine lists. Which probably leaves the spot open for the Arctic Monkeys, though to my ears Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not has only one real good song, with the rest ranging from OK to not bad to so what. I've never heard Joanna Newsom, and the people who like her are sure doing a bad job of making her seem fun. And then there's a whole bunch of other indie I-don't-know-who and I-don't-know-what. TV On The Radio. The Hold Steady. Raconteurs. Flaming Lips. Yeah Yeah Yeahs. Sufjan. Neko Case. Jenny Lewis. Cat Power. CSS. Damned if I can predict 'em, though I don't see this year's Hold Steady doing as well as last year's. I don't expect any of the standard respectable rock guys (Yorke, Beck, Springsteen, Young, Buckingham) to do real well, but then I'm often surprised here. Personally thought Springsteen's voice was too dry and musclebound on The Seeger Sessions, but he'll place, probably. Ghostface Killah and The Clipse are the great nonwhite hopes; think the first might be too crowded and daunting to go top five (too crowded and daunting for me, anyway), the second too late in the year. T.I. is too much the Dirty South. Again, no idea how My Chemical Romance and Lily Allen will do, curious to find out. Also, there's no real precedent for how the Dixie Chicks'll do.
As for the Nashville Scene's Country Critics Poll, again I'm at a loss, though my guess is the Dixie Chicks win both categories without any real competition but maybe without the numbers Lee Ann Womack pulled last year.* Carrie Underwood's dynamite "Before He Cheats" deserves to give "Not Ready To Make Nice" a run for the money, but it probably will finish in the distance, second or third. Maybe Alan Jackson pulls a surprise in both singles and albums, since he's gettin' rock 'n' dance guys like me who usually find him a snooze. After that I've no idea. Maybe some dead Cash-ins, or live Rosannes if enough voters decide she's country. Maybe Dierks is on the rise. Jessi Colter's comeback is as interesting as Loretta's was a couple of years ago, but too few noticed. I think she'll place somewhere. (How's that for an emphatic prediction?) I prefer Jennings fils, actually, but unlike last year he's not getting a single in the top ten. You can't count on country critics to embrace L.A. sleaze rock. Toby Keith and Montgomery Gentry put out great stuff, but they're too unkempt to get huge critical support. And Tim and Faith are too much the other way. Don't know if the people who always vote Drive-By Truckers will think that a mediocre Drive-By Truckers alb is as worthy as a good one. There's no Gary Allan this year to draw voters in from both mainstream and alt. Not sure how much Mindy Smith, Neko Case, and Jenny Lewis are on the country-critic landscape. The pleasing singer-songwriter ex-teenpop Wreckers are something of a wild card. (Newbie Taylor Swift is better than the Wreckers on all counts - singing, songwriting, and being teenish and poppy - but is probably too catchy and winsome for the voters.)
*But last year the Scene didn't even print the numbers, so I don't know how large Womack's victory actually was. Leaving off the numbers feels really dishonest. Remind me to write Geoff and urge him to insist on numbers this time.
What Edd Hurt Wrote (in an email)
Date: 2006-12-28 12:46 am (UTC)Dixie Chicks
Vince Gill
Rosanne
Mindy Smith
Willie's Cindy Walker
Kristofferson
Guy Clark
Solomon Burke
Neko Case
Keith Urban
for the top 10 full-length; Gill might even beat out the Chicks.
Paul Burch
Neil Young
Todd Snider
Jenny Lewis
Dierks
the next five; and I might be fooled, and Dierks might sneak into the
top 5
and I'd say the next five would be something like
Sugarland
Wreckers
Tres Chicas
Drive-By Truckers
Alejandro Escovedo (or The Duhks; the Mammals, to my ears, are better,
but
I don't see them getting a lot of votes). I guess I think that the
critics
are going to go for the stuff that overlaps with alt-detritus more than
they
will Jackson or Gentry or Watson or any of them. (see below). Trent
Willmon and maybe even Radney Foster might sneak into the top 20, I
could
see that, definitely.
Alan Jackson is the hardest to predict. His record seems polarizing in
a
weird way, one that I find hard to understand. Could be he places a lot
higher than I think he will, but I see him down in the 20s somewhere.
Ditto
Montgomery Gentry, who have become something of a joke, too bad since
at
their best they probably were the most rocking group of the year, at
least
in country music.
And I dunno--Old Crow Medicine Show? Hold Steady? Ray Wylie?
Kane/Welch/Kaplin? maybe top 20? To my ears, Jamey Johnson and Darryl
Worley both made really strong records this year, but I don't see
either one
placing anywhere near the top. Or Blaine Larsen's, which I have to
admit,
listening to it again recently, isn't anywhere near as strong as his
first
record.
Re: What Edd Hurt Wrote (in an email) (from Chuck)
Date: 2006-12-28 04:49 pm (UTC)Re: What Edd Hurt Wrote (in an email) (from Chuck)
Date: 2006-12-28 09:46 pm (UTC)Vince Gill is barely in my earshot. I mean, I've heard him, but tend not to remember what I've heard. Do you think there'll be any support for George Strait, people honoring an old master?
Re: What Edd Hurt Wrote (in an email) (from Chuck)
Date: 2007-01-01 03:56 pm (UTC)http://www.nodepression.net/blogs/grant/
Re: What Edd Hurt Wrote (in an email) (from Chuck) (from Edd)
Date: 2007-01-07 03:07 am (UTC)Paul Burch is one of the worthier folks on this interesting comp called "The Other Side: Music from East Nashville," on Red Beet. Todd Snider's the big star on it. Burch does a pretty nice tune about meeting John Peel, who "walks in on the arm of Laura Cantrell." it's interesting, of course it's alt- and has its genteel side, but I find it pretty listenable.
Vince Gill. I saw this new year's eve special here on PBS w/ country fan Garrison Keillor and Vince, walking around down by the Ryman, and Vince goes into Tootsie's and sings a chorus with Chuck Mead of BR-549. And I mean I talked to all these guys who've been around far longer writing than I, like Friskics-Warren and David Cantwell and such, during the Americana fest last fall, and they were all up on the Gill. took me by surprise. I saw Gill play Letterman's show or one of them, and he was good, real good, but the guy he reminded me of was Glen Campbell in his later years--a very very skilled guitarist and an obviously good singer who seemed somehow distanced from his own persona. maybe I am wrong. it's 4 discs and the other night I heard some of the "rockin'" disc and what it reminded me of was Louisiana swamp pop. good, but to my ears mild. I have not heard all of it. But perhaps the sheer bulk of the thing will get him over, as Chuck says, and perhaps the "return to roots" by a guy who has always been really respected as very very skilled guitarist and obviously good singer might get him a lot of votes?
Hold Steady is popular in Nashville--but the Drive-By Truckers get far more love here, in fact the staff at Nashville Scene, folks like my editor there and Lee Stabert, who is a fine writer for the paper, love them a lot more than I do. (Saw them years ago w/ lousy sound and probably in a lousy mood myself in Memphis, and not a good gig, so that has colored my perception of them ever since, which I know is neither here nor there. And Nashville isn't the whole world, of course.)
Might be envisioning a higher ranking for Neko Case, too, than she actually will get. I admit it, I love that record--it got me thru the last, loss-filled year. But it does seem to me that's one record that crosses the alt- and "country" wide/not-wide barrier as well as any I heard last year. and re Alan Jackson, I suspect I might be wrong there; as I say, that's the one I can't figure out. the reviewer for ND came down hard on it, but that might be a quirk of the alt- mentality in that it's uncomfortable with something so pop and mediated and, well, genteel.
I didn't mention Old Crow Medicine Show, who a lot of folks I know think is great. never even heard it! Kristofferson's record made #27 in ND's poll. I think it's one of the worst records I have ever heard. the one thing I know, my taste ain't always exactly universal, and thank God for that.