Pazz & Jop/Jackin' Pop predictions
Dec. 25th, 2006 08:52 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
koganbotAs my Christmas gift to fellow fanatics, here are my predictions for the two big critic polls (and one smaller one):
SINGLES
"Crazy" wins decisively. My guess a few weeks ago would have been "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" fighting for second, with "I Bet You Look Good On The Dance Floor" a dark horse. But "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" are mostly absent from the magazine year-ends I've seen, so now I'm thinking that "Dance Floor" will be what's high up. This doesn't upset me too much, since "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" sometimes grate on me, and I like Alex Turner's engaging come-hither-and-fuck-off petulance. Always a sucker for a mixed message, I am. But the Arctic Monkeys lack popular music's basic throb and voluptuousness, and I'm no fan of the dour puritanism they represent. Also, some people might assign the song to last year, which won't hurt on P&J, which tallies holdovers, but might wound it on Jackin' Pop. Cassie's "Me & U" has throb and juice while managing to build itself around a spare riff that's more icy than the Arctics. It's the song of the year, state of the art, imposing, anxious, seductive. Didn't quite place on my own list (I want warmer stuff), but it sure deserves to win. But probably will cool its heels in the lower half of the top ten, if even there. Although Lil Jon's "Snap Yo Fingers" and Yung Joc's "It's Goin' Down" were the two most-played rap songs on the hip-hop/r&b stations, neither has a snowball's chance, though the latter's better than anything else I've mentioned. T.I.'s "What You Know" will do respectably. "Do respectably" means it will show up on the list but I have no clue where. Ditto Chamillionaire's "Ridin'." I have even less of a clue how rock 'n' emo stuff like "Over My Head," "I Write Sins Not Tragedies," and "Welcome to the Black Parade" will do. Bouncy's "Irreplaceable" might finish strong, but probably came along too late. Fergie won't place as high as she deserves, and the worthy JoJo will be completely overlooked. In the last couple of years Gretchen and B&R and Miranda and Brad have all placed mainstream country onto P&J. Won't happen this year from them or anyone else, unless you count the ex-country Dixies, who might sneak into the top 40. Maybe I'm underestimating the prospects of Carrie Underwood's great "Before He Cheats," but I doubt that most critics noticed. Nor did they notice teenpop or Europop or Eurodance* or techno or house, at least not enough to get a single on the P&J chart. Nor did they notice adult contemporary. Or urban AC. Or jazz. Or metal. Or Christian. Or international pop except maybe Shakira. Or dancehall except maybe Sean Paul and maybe maybe maybe Cham. Or reggaeton. (Obviously many of us did notice these categories and might even vote songs from 'em, but those votes'll get lost.)
*Will the Knife get any singles on the board? I don't have an intuitive feel for this, but I don't think so.
All this is on the assumption that Jackin' Pop has a large turnout. If not, and its demographics are more towards bloggers and message board types (may well be), its top 40 will skew towards indie rock and weirdo dance pop, helping stuff like "I Bet You Look Good On The Dance Floor" and Lily Allen's "Smile" and the Knife and "Let's Make Love And Listen Death From Above" but also helping a lot of indie rock crap.
ALBUMS
I've got this figured out. No one wins.
I thought Dylan would get it by default, but Modern Times isn't showing up high on magazine lists. Which probably leaves the spot open for the Arctic Monkeys, though to my ears Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not has only one real good song, with the rest ranging from OK to not bad to so what. I've never heard Joanna Newsom, and the people who like her are sure doing a bad job of making her seem fun. And then there's a whole bunch of other indie I-don't-know-who and I-don't-know-what. TV On The Radio. The Hold Steady. Raconteurs. Flaming Lips. Yeah Yeah Yeahs. Sufjan. Neko Case. Jenny Lewis. Cat Power. CSS. Damned if I can predict 'em, though I don't see this year's Hold Steady doing as well as last year's. I don't expect any of the standard respectable rock guys (Yorke, Beck, Springsteen, Young, Buckingham) to do real well, but then I'm often surprised here. Personally thought Springsteen's voice was too dry and musclebound on The Seeger Sessions, but he'll place, probably. Ghostface Killah and The Clipse are the great nonwhite hopes; think the first might be too crowded and daunting to go top five (too crowded and daunting for me, anyway), the second too late in the year. T.I. is too much the Dirty South. Again, no idea how My Chemical Romance and Lily Allen will do, curious to find out. Also, there's no real precedent for how the Dixie Chicks'll do.
As for the Nashville Scene's Country Critics Poll, again I'm at a loss, though my guess is the Dixie Chicks win both categories without any real competition but maybe without the numbers Lee Ann Womack pulled last year.* Carrie Underwood's dynamite "Before He Cheats" deserves to give "Not Ready To Make Nice" a run for the money, but it probably will finish in the distance, second or third. Maybe Alan Jackson pulls a surprise in both singles and albums, since he's gettin' rock 'n' dance guys like me who usually find him a snooze. After that I've no idea. Maybe some dead Cash-ins, or live Rosannes if enough voters decide she's country. Maybe Dierks is on the rise. Jessi Colter's comeback is as interesting as Loretta's was a couple of years ago, but too few noticed. I think she'll place somewhere. (How's that for an emphatic prediction?) I prefer Jennings fils, actually, but unlike last year he's not getting a single in the top ten. You can't count on country critics to embrace L.A. sleaze rock. Toby Keith and Montgomery Gentry put out great stuff, but they're too unkempt to get huge critical support. And Tim and Faith are too much the other way. Don't know if the people who always vote Drive-By Truckers will think that a mediocre Drive-By Truckers alb is as worthy as a good one. There's no Gary Allan this year to draw voters in from both mainstream and alt. Not sure how much Mindy Smith, Neko Case, and Jenny Lewis are on the country-critic landscape. The pleasing singer-songwriter ex-teenpop Wreckers are something of a wild card. (Newbie Taylor Swift is better than the Wreckers on all counts - singing, songwriting, and being teenish and poppy - but is probably too catchy and winsome for the voters.)
*But last year the Scene didn't even print the numbers, so I don't know how large Womack's victory actually was. Leaving off the numbers feels really dishonest. Remind me to write Geoff and urge him to insist on numbers this time.
SINGLES
"Crazy" wins decisively. My guess a few weeks ago would have been "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" fighting for second, with "I Bet You Look Good On The Dance Floor" a dark horse. But "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" are mostly absent from the magazine year-ends I've seen, so now I'm thinking that "Dance Floor" will be what's high up. This doesn't upset me too much, since "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" sometimes grate on me, and I like Alex Turner's engaging come-hither-and-fuck-off petulance. Always a sucker for a mixed message, I am. But the Arctic Monkeys lack popular music's basic throb and voluptuousness, and I'm no fan of the dour puritanism they represent. Also, some people might assign the song to last year, which won't hurt on P&J, which tallies holdovers, but might wound it on Jackin' Pop. Cassie's "Me & U" has throb and juice while managing to build itself around a spare riff that's more icy than the Arctics. It's the song of the year, state of the art, imposing, anxious, seductive. Didn't quite place on my own list (I want warmer stuff), but it sure deserves to win. But probably will cool its heels in the lower half of the top ten, if even there. Although Lil Jon's "Snap Yo Fingers" and Yung Joc's "It's Goin' Down" were the two most-played rap songs on the hip-hop/r&b stations, neither has a snowball's chance, though the latter's better than anything else I've mentioned. T.I.'s "What You Know" will do respectably. "Do respectably" means it will show up on the list but I have no clue where. Ditto Chamillionaire's "Ridin'." I have even less of a clue how rock 'n' emo stuff like "Over My Head," "I Write Sins Not Tragedies," and "Welcome to the Black Parade" will do. Bouncy's "Irreplaceable" might finish strong, but probably came along too late. Fergie won't place as high as she deserves, and the worthy JoJo will be completely overlooked. In the last couple of years Gretchen and B&R and Miranda and Brad have all placed mainstream country onto P&J. Won't happen this year from them or anyone else, unless you count the ex-country Dixies, who might sneak into the top 40. Maybe I'm underestimating the prospects of Carrie Underwood's great "Before He Cheats," but I doubt that most critics noticed. Nor did they notice teenpop or Europop or Eurodance* or techno or house, at least not enough to get a single on the P&J chart. Nor did they notice adult contemporary. Or urban AC. Or jazz. Or metal. Or Christian. Or international pop except maybe Shakira. Or dancehall except maybe Sean Paul and maybe maybe maybe Cham. Or reggaeton. (Obviously many of us did notice these categories and might even vote songs from 'em, but those votes'll get lost.)
*Will the Knife get any singles on the board? I don't have an intuitive feel for this, but I don't think so.
All this is on the assumption that Jackin' Pop has a large turnout. If not, and its demographics are more towards bloggers and message board types (may well be), its top 40 will skew towards indie rock and weirdo dance pop, helping stuff like "I Bet You Look Good On The Dance Floor" and Lily Allen's "Smile" and the Knife and "Let's Make Love And Listen Death From Above" but also helping a lot of indie rock crap.
ALBUMS
I've got this figured out. No one wins.
I thought Dylan would get it by default, but Modern Times isn't showing up high on magazine lists. Which probably leaves the spot open for the Arctic Monkeys, though to my ears Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not has only one real good song, with the rest ranging from OK to not bad to so what. I've never heard Joanna Newsom, and the people who like her are sure doing a bad job of making her seem fun. And then there's a whole bunch of other indie I-don't-know-who and I-don't-know-what. TV On The Radio. The Hold Steady. Raconteurs. Flaming Lips. Yeah Yeah Yeahs. Sufjan. Neko Case. Jenny Lewis. Cat Power. CSS. Damned if I can predict 'em, though I don't see this year's Hold Steady doing as well as last year's. I don't expect any of the standard respectable rock guys (Yorke, Beck, Springsteen, Young, Buckingham) to do real well, but then I'm often surprised here. Personally thought Springsteen's voice was too dry and musclebound on The Seeger Sessions, but he'll place, probably. Ghostface Killah and The Clipse are the great nonwhite hopes; think the first might be too crowded and daunting to go top five (too crowded and daunting for me, anyway), the second too late in the year. T.I. is too much the Dirty South. Again, no idea how My Chemical Romance and Lily Allen will do, curious to find out. Also, there's no real precedent for how the Dixie Chicks'll do.
As for the Nashville Scene's Country Critics Poll, again I'm at a loss, though my guess is the Dixie Chicks win both categories without any real competition but maybe without the numbers Lee Ann Womack pulled last year.* Carrie Underwood's dynamite "Before He Cheats" deserves to give "Not Ready To Make Nice" a run for the money, but it probably will finish in the distance, second or third. Maybe Alan Jackson pulls a surprise in both singles and albums, since he's gettin' rock 'n' dance guys like me who usually find him a snooze. After that I've no idea. Maybe some dead Cash-ins, or live Rosannes if enough voters decide she's country. Maybe Dierks is on the rise. Jessi Colter's comeback is as interesting as Loretta's was a couple of years ago, but too few noticed. I think she'll place somewhere. (How's that for an emphatic prediction?) I prefer Jennings fils, actually, but unlike last year he's not getting a single in the top ten. You can't count on country critics to embrace L.A. sleaze rock. Toby Keith and Montgomery Gentry put out great stuff, but they're too unkempt to get huge critical support. And Tim and Faith are too much the other way. Don't know if the people who always vote Drive-By Truckers will think that a mediocre Drive-By Truckers alb is as worthy as a good one. There's no Gary Allan this year to draw voters in from both mainstream and alt. Not sure how much Mindy Smith, Neko Case, and Jenny Lewis are on the country-critic landscape. The pleasing singer-songwriter ex-teenpop Wreckers are something of a wild card. (Newbie Taylor Swift is better than the Wreckers on all counts - singing, songwriting, and being teenish and poppy - but is probably too catchy and winsome for the voters.)
*But last year the Scene didn't even print the numbers, so I don't know how large Womack's victory actually was. Leaving off the numbers feels really dishonest. Remind me to write Geoff and urge him to insist on numbers this time.
