Pazz & Jop/Jackin' Pop predictions

[koganbot]

As my Christmas gift to fellow fanatics, here are my predictions for the two big critic polls (and one smaller one):

SINGLES

"Crazy" wins decisively. My guess a few weeks ago would have been "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" fighting for second, with "I Bet You Look Good On The Dance Floor" a dark horse. But "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" are mostly absent from the magazine year-ends I've seen, so now I'm thinking that "Dance Floor" will be what's high up. This doesn't upset me too much, since "Promiscuous" and "SexyBack" sometimes grate on me, and I like Alex Turner's engaging come-hither-and-fuck-off petulance. Always a sucker for a mixed message, I am. But the Arctic Monkeys lack popular music's basic throb and voluptuousness, and I'm no fan of the dour puritanism they represent. Also, some people might assign the song to last year, which won't hurt on P&J, which tallies holdovers, but might wound it on Jackin' Pop. Cassie's "Me & U" has throb and juice while managing to build itself around a spare riff that's more icy than the Arctics. It's the song of the year, state of the art, imposing, anxious, seductive. Didn't quite place on my own list (I want warmer stuff), but it sure deserves to win. But probably will cool its heels in the lower half of the top ten, if even there. Although Lil Jon's "Snap Yo Fingers" and Yung Joc's "It's Goin' Down" were the two most-played rap songs on the hip-hop/r&b stations, neither has a snowball's chance, though the latter's better than anything else I've mentioned. T.I.'s "What You Know" will do respectably. "Do respectably" means it will show up on the list but I have no clue where. Ditto Chamillionaire's "Ridin'." I have even less of a clue how rock 'n' emo stuff like "Over My Head," "I Write Sins Not Tragedies," and "Welcome to the Black Parade" will do. Bouncy's "Irreplaceable" might finish strong, but probably came along too late. Fergie won't place as high as she deserves, and the worthy JoJo will be completely overlooked. In the last couple of years Gretchen and B&R and Miranda and Brad have all placed mainstream country onto P&J. Won't happen this year from them or anyone else, unless you count the ex-country Dixies, who might sneak into the top 40. Maybe I'm underestimating the prospects of Carrie Underwood's great "Before He Cheats," but I doubt that most critics noticed. Nor did they notice teenpop or Europop or Eurodance* or techno or house, at least not enough to get a single on the P&J chart. Nor did they notice adult contemporary. Or urban AC. Or jazz. Or metal. Or Christian. Or international pop except maybe Shakira. Or dancehall except maybe Sean Paul and maybe maybe maybe Cham. Or reggaeton. (Obviously many of us did notice these categories and might even vote songs from 'em, but those votes'll get lost.)

*Will the Knife get any singles on the board? I don't have an intuitive feel for this, but I don't think so.

All this is on the assumption that Jackin' Pop has a large turnout. If not, and its demographics are more towards bloggers and message board types (may well be), its top 40 will skew towards indie rock and weirdo dance pop, helping stuff like "I Bet You Look Good On The Dance Floor" and Lily Allen's "Smile" and the Knife and "Let's Make Love And Listen Death From Above" but also helping a lot of indie rock crap.

ALBUMS

I've got this figured out. No one wins.

I thought Dylan would get it by default, but Modern Times isn't showing up high on magazine lists. Which probably leaves the spot open for the Arctic Monkeys, though to my ears Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not has only one real good song, with the rest ranging from OK to not bad to so what. I've never heard Joanna Newsom, and the people who like her are sure doing a bad job of making her seem fun. And then there's a whole bunch of other indie I-don't-know-who and I-don't-know-what. TV On The Radio. The Hold Steady. Raconteurs. Flaming Lips. Yeah Yeah Yeahs. Sufjan. Neko Case. Jenny Lewis. Cat Power. CSS. Damned if I can predict 'em, though I don't see this year's Hold Steady doing as well as last year's. I don't expect any of the standard respectable rock guys (Yorke, Beck, Springsteen, Young, Buckingham) to do real well, but then I'm often surprised here. Personally thought Springsteen's voice was too dry and musclebound on The Seeger Sessions, but he'll place, probably. Ghostface Killah and The Clipse are the great nonwhite hopes; think the first might be too crowded and daunting to go top five (too crowded and daunting for me, anyway), the second too late in the year. T.I. is too much the Dirty South. Again, no idea how My Chemical Romance and Lily Allen will do, curious to find out. Also, there's no real precedent for how the Dixie Chicks'll do.

As for the Nashville Scene's Country Critics Poll, again I'm at a loss, though my guess is the Dixie Chicks win both categories without any real competition but maybe without the numbers Lee Ann Womack pulled last year.* Carrie Underwood's dynamite "Before He Cheats" deserves to give "Not Ready To Make Nice" a run for the money, but it probably will finish in the distance, second or third. Maybe Alan Jackson pulls a surprise in both singles and albums, since he's gettin' rock 'n' dance guys like me who usually find him a snooze. After that I've no idea. Maybe some dead Cash-ins, or live Rosannes if enough voters decide she's country. Maybe Dierks is on the rise. Jessi Colter's comeback is as interesting as Loretta's was a couple of years ago, but too few noticed. I think she'll place somewhere. (How's that for an emphatic prediction?) I prefer Jennings fils, actually, but unlike last year he's not getting a single in the top ten. You can't count on country critics to embrace L.A. sleaze rock. Toby Keith and Montgomery Gentry put out great stuff, but they're too unkempt to get huge critical support. And Tim and Faith are too much the other way. Don't know if the people who always vote Drive-By Truckers will think that a mediocre Drive-By Truckers alb is as worthy as a good one. There's no Gary Allan this year to draw voters in from both mainstream and alt. Not sure how much Mindy Smith, Neko Case, and Jenny Lewis are on the country-critic landscape. The pleasing singer-songwriter ex-teenpop Wreckers are something of a wild card. (Newbie Taylor Swift is better than the Wreckers on all counts - singing, songwriting, and being teenish and poppy - but is probably too catchy and winsome for the voters.)

*But last year the Scene didn't even print the numbers, so I don't know how large Womack's victory actually was. Leaving off the numbers feels really dishonest. Remind me to write Geoff and urge him to insist on numbers this time.

Comments

[piratemoggy.livejournal.com]

I'm surprised the Arctic Monkeys are even a consideration- I'd got the impression the US had metaphorically stuffed them in its mouth, chewed them about for a second and then spat them out before making some gagging noises and saying they weren't ever having any of that nasty stuff ever again. I should really keep up with things more.

Joanna Newsom is actually surprisingly listenable and occasionally really good- I haven't heard her new album but there were a couple of songs on her first album (one of them had 'book' in the title but I can't remember the whole thing) are pretty fun and also just pretty, although her voice is a bit weird. She reminds me of Cerys Mathews quite a lot.

[dickmalone.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I thought so too about the Monkeys, but they have placed at or near the top of a number of the lists that have already come out.

I have no idea if non-critics like them, but then I had no idea that critics like them, so I can't really be trusted.

[koganbot]

Well, I'm hardly the man with his finger on the pulse here. But this is a constituency that a couple of years ago voted Franz Ferdinand's "Take Me Out" over Jay-Z's "99 Problems," Usher's "Yeah," and Britney Spears' "Toxic." (Not that I dislike "Take Me Out," just pointing out what's often the voters' preferences.) If neither Modern Times nor Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not wins, I'm not sure what does. Could be an interesting surprise if it's, say, Ghostface Killah or TV On The Radio or Joanna Newsom.

[pot80.livejournal.com]

If anyone's voting for Arctic Monkeys, it's going to be the corporate magazine and newspaper writers -- they certainly have little support from any circles that I'm familiar.

[pot80.livejournal.com]

Yeah, but "Take Me Out" was a massive crossover hit (as was Modest Mouse's "Float On"), and no one bought the Arctic Monkeys at all in the US, much less played them on the radio!

[anthonyeaston.livejournal.com]

Newsom is gorgeous, complicated, and difficult--with amazing harp, adn a voice that ranges b/w yoko and the danielson family, i dont think i like the album, but I admire the fuck out of it, and i admire that it seems genuiunely concerned with maintaining a tradition of avant gardeness...its also well written in a mystic/cryptic kind of way

[anthonyeaston.livejournal.com]

(thats code for yeah it isnt fun, but who says that music has to be fun?)

[koganbot]

According to Mediabase, "I Bet You Look Good On The Dance Floor" was the 44th most-played song of the year on alternative radio, with 24,912 spins. That's not fabulous, but it's something of a presence (it beats the number of hits I got on my MySpace page, for instance; probably also beats M.I.A.'s radio plays last year). Can't say that I myself feel surrounded by Arctic Monkey fervor...

From Chuck (in Texas)

[(Anonymous)]

Uh, this is Chuck. In Texas. On Vacation. A week ago I would have said Dylan wins the albums. Now I say TV on the Radio, who I don't get and never will, with Ghostface and the Clipse and Gnarls (who keep showing up on *album* lists I've seen everywhere, which I didn't expect at all) possibilities. Joanna Nuisance, as my daughter (who is now starting to like her, and insist that I might too if I actually gave her more than a perfunctory attempt, though I'm highly skeptical and have no plansto do so any time soon) calls her, is maybe top five, maybe top ten. I get the idea that she is too polarizing to win, but I could be wrong. Both Lily Allen singles will finish higher than the Lily Allen album, but the Lily Allen album will do okay despite its import status. I'm guessing "LDN" will out-single-poll "Smile," as it obviously should, but I could be wrong. Dixie Chicks will have the highest non-Cash country finish, albums and singles both, on non-country polls in years. Alan Jackson could place in either singles or albums in Pazz and Jack. Mastodon Top 20, pretty generous for something like the 50th best metal album of the year, if that. Lady Sovereign will be sadly overlooked, though might squeeze in toward the bottom of some Top 40 or other. Etc.

Chuck Eddy

[(Anonymous)]

(But Alan Jackson is still a *longshot* in everywhere but the country polls, I agree. And I may be overestimating Mastodon's and maybe even the Dixie Chicks' chances,though I think I'm starting to see a "token metal album" and "token country album" trend on year-end lists in the same way there are "token hip-hop albums" -- the latter of which will help both Clipse and Ghostface. Arctic Monkeys I have no idea about; "I Bet You Look Good" got a bunch of Pazz&Jop singles votes last year, as Frank said, and I agree Anglophiles probably think of it as more a 2005 than 2006 song, and still don't understand why anybody and everybody preferred that album to the vastly more entertaining Hard-Fi album. Panic At The Disco and My Chemical Romance will finish somewhere, but I have no idea where; I guess I hate Panic slightly less myself. And now that I think of it, I may be wrong about Lily's singles out-polling her album; since her single votes may well be split between the two. Again, I'm surprised and stumped about the people picking the way more generic "Smile" over "LDN." The Knife album will probably do better than the Final Fantasy album, which may not even place, though two months ago I would've easily predicted Top 20 for the latter, and when I finally heard the Knife yesterday on my oldest son's itunes I thought they were almost as boring as the Final Fantasy stuff I heard on my daughter's around Thanksgiving. And One More Thing: OutKast not Top 40.)

Re: From Chuck (in Texas)

[mcatzilut.livejournal.com]

I thought Lady Sovereign was going to get overlooked - the album is not as good as last year's EP and my impression was that most people agreed. But then I saw it appear on the RS best albums list and the Spin albums list (and the PFM list, too, I think - can't really make sure, I'm trying to remember these offhand). So I think she's going to get placed because people want to celebrate her, even without a proper album. I can't understand the Gnarls Barkley album placement either, but I'm guessing it's for the same reason. It's like winning an Oscar for a subpar movie because you got passed over for your classic.

Re: Chuck Eddy

[mcatzilut.livejournal.com]

So cool posting facebook messages in response in real time...

Anyway: I'm one of the people who likes Smile more than LDN - but I put LDN in my singles list and not Smile - and I think that'll happen with a lot of people. I generally don't care about things like 'throwing my vote away' but I love both singles, and they were close enough that I didn't mind going with what I thought was the winner. And I don't think Dixie Chicks and Mastodon are the token Country/Metal albums. I think they are the country album and the metal album that the mainstream enjoyed for reasons other than them being country or being metal. I think I can prove it better with the Chicks - but even with Mastodon, they are accessible (and they have that really-cool factor, where people are listening to them because they seem to be doing something totally sweet, ie: making sprawling metal concept albums). But the Dixie Chicks are very easy listening, and don't really on Country tropes to enjoy - so you can pick them up (like my mother did, who doesn't really listen to country) and love them. Unlike maybe Alan Jackson, who really seems to be making a comment on his own music, on country music in general, on the way those tropes seem to work.

Re: Chuck Eddy

[(Anonymous)]

Ugh. Don't generally correct my own typoes, but this one changes the meaning.
"and don't rely** on Country tropes to enjoy"

Chuck Again

[(Anonymous)]

And I'm one of the people who like Lady Sovereign's album (which is just way more user-friendly, with fewer redundant remixes, yet still short enoguh to manage) more than her EP. I voted for the former myself.

As for Drive By Truckers, this is hardly their first mediocre album,and the earlier ones did fine. (I actually think I preferred the new mediocre one to the previous mediocre one, though I could be wrong.) Though I get the idea critics are finally starting to catch on to their increasing mediocrity (I say this as somebody who ranked *Southern Rock Opera* #1 or #2 on my list the year it came out, so I'm no hater.)

Hold Steady I voted for, though way less enthusiastically than I voted for their previous one. In this case, I seem to agree with the consensus. Which is to say, yeah, they'll do less well this time. Though they'll still do fine -- better than the Truckers, I reckon.

Chuck Again Again

[(Anonymous)]

Also, there was no lack of metal albums more tuneful/more accessible/less metal/more thematically goofy than Mastodon's this year. That was just the one that the press zeroed in on. They *defined* "token". But I do see the point re: the Chicks. People zeroed in on what that album stood for; its countriness or lack thereof was probably incidental. (And even though I think its the dullest of their last four albums, and even though they've made way better singles than "Not Ready," I should stay I'm still rooting for 'em to do well.)

Re: Chuck Again Again

[mcatzilut.livejournal.com]

I'm pretty sure I'm the only person who thought Easy Silence was amazing and "Not Ready" was shticky. Well, other people probably thought Not Ready was shticky, but no one else appears to like Easy Silence (except a few of my non-critic friends). And I personally found Mastodon totally unaccessible and completely absurd, but they certainly got a push on this album because of Leviathan - because many critics think doing an album around Moby Dick means something about America, and about American literature, and about American pop culture. I think they see the new album as a chance to affirm their love for Leviathan. Maybe that makes the new album *token*, but I don't believe that if Mastodon hadn't come out with something, that there would've been a different *token* album. I think this was the opportunity.

Re: Chuck Again Again

[(Anonymous)]

Jackson wont place outside of nashville, the dixie chicks will, but nowhere near the top, except maybe the singles (in fact, Before He Cheats, might have a better chance than not ready to make nice), i bet st elsewhere will win album, i bet. Monkeys seem to much of a 2005 thing (i voted then), and TV on the Radio doesn't seem pop enough to push that high, but i might be wrong, I don't know about Mastadon.

(also I think that Beyonce will make it in the top 10, but of several singles, I am not sure which one will chart)

how do you think that Waits will do on the non country polls? (or the country polls) I see it on some end of year lists, and metacritic gives it 91, with a handful of 100s...i don't know where it will go, though--Frank/Chuck/Atizult/Others, any thots on where Tom will place?

[anthonyeaston.livejournal.com]

that was me

Re: Chuck Again Again

[mcatzilut.livejournal.com]

Personally, I can't see the Wait's album doing much outside of some kind of Reprint, Collection, etcetera listing. Not because it isn't a great album (it's amazing), but I think it's really hard to figure out what kind of album it is. I'm personally predicting that if it places at all - it's very low, most people will neglect it out of confusion. And you might be right about St. Elsewhere - though I wish I could figure out how the album is getting credited on the strength of the one single.

-Mordy

Chuck

[(Anonymous)]

Waits going top 10 isn't out of the question, I don't think. He's done it before, and the quantity-before-quality aspects of his new set seem to make people think it's "important", even though much of it is just mainly outtakes or whatever, right? Or in other words, critics seem to treat it like a big record just because its size lends it a certain air of substantiality. Plus it's fresh in people's memories; did real well in pre-Christmas retail. I have no use for the guy myself; never will.

If people really think any Mastodon album is about Moby Dick, it's because of the interviews, not because they actually heard anything in the lyrics, which are incomprehensible at any speed. (But wait, wasn't their Moby Dick album the previous one? Which didn't really go anywhere in non-metal polls. Also, it was a better album than the new one, as far as I could tell. But criticwise, '07 was their moment.) As whale-metal goes, Ahab are more compelling. So was "Moby Dick" by Led Zep.

Re: Chuck

[mcatzilut.livejournal.com]

I agree that Mastodon is going to get much more placement this year (unless you mean '07, like an upcoming album?) -- but look at the ways it's been covered. Here's the lead to Ratliff's review of Blood Mountain:

"“We’re about things of majesty,” said Brann Dailor, drummer of the heavy-metal band Mastodon. He has an energized, curious demeanor, short blond hair, a silver incisor, rings in both earlobes and a chest tattoo that sprouted from the neck of his yellow T-shirt.

“Or monolithic things,” he continued over lunch recently. “A giant whale. Our band name. Grand. Gotta be big.”"

So first it's his appearance (which is a tokenish detail) and then it's a Moby Dick reference. But maybe the band is trying to enforce that - after all it's Dailor's quote. But Ratliff clearly seems more enamored with Leviathan than Blood Mountain: "Thus Black Sabbath. Thus “Leviathan”: in Mr. Hinds’s explanation, the album was about “the struggle between man and music,” a metaphor about holding together as a band through endless one-nighters. (What was the whale? That’s harder to say: the idea was of a band questing after some elusive liberation through music, something that might not even exist.) And thus Mastodon’s new record, “Blood Mountain,” which Warner Brother will release tomorrow."

There's all this romanticism mixed into the description - that the rest of the article (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/11/arts/music/11mast.html?ex=1315627200&en=a9f12a73d17dde99&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss) lacks.

Ok - but I also read Pitchforkmedia a lot, so I admit some of my gaging of critical acclaim is from their reviews (which might be a mistake). Where they absolutely loved Leviathan, and then referenced it a couple time in Blood Mountain. So -- I feel like it's like giving Denzel Washington the academy award for Training Day, when he deserved it for Hurricane or Malcolm X.

Anyway - I don't get Mastodon, even though one of my close friends swears by them. But they don't blow me away. So I pick out the thematic elements, because they are the most interesting things to me - the music does less.

Chuck Again

[(Anonymous)]

oops, i meant '06 is/was mastodon's year, not '07.

(and also, you can tell their album's a token by top-ten list notations that read something along the lines of "a classic metal album like Master of Puppets and Reign in Blood," which would basically appear to mean "a classic metal album like the other two metal albums I own.")

curious

[anthonyeaston.livejournal.com]

can you tell me more about why you dont like waits chuck (i think you like dylan, and cohen, if i remember correctly?)

Re: Chuck Again Again

[koganbot]

I love "Not Ready" for the beauty and dead-eyed sparseness of the verses - the way they sound, that is - but think the chorus washes everything out too much. I voted it somewhere around number 7 in the Nashville Scene poll. "Lubbock Or Leave It" kicks butt and if it had been a single would have been top five. Fave overlooked tracked from the alb is "Voice Inside My Head." Mordy, don't see why you'd call "Not Ready To Make Nice" a shtick; for something to be a shtick they gotta do it more than once.

Predictions for my own list

[koganbot]

Ghetto Story is my token dancehall album (except I don't feel any pressure - internal or otherwise - to include a dancehall album, so it's not really a token). It's not guaranteed to make my P&J, though it's on my Jackin' Pop. Results of last-minute album cramming: Surprise darkhorse choice for my ballot would be Dem Franchise Boys - love the sound - though lack of charisma among the rappers will probably keep it off. Ghostface Killah's Fishscale has a lot going on and needs more attention from me than it's going to get in the next five days; so far I find it too recessive. Do like the guy's voice. TV On The Radio also needs more attention from me than it'll get, but it wouldn't make my ballot anyway: too few great tunes, and all the screens and effects and filters in the world can't compensate for blah vocals. LeToya alb surprisingly strong, but slow jamz still aren't my thing, though I am trying to "get" them. The Lindsey Buckingham is as strange as the TV On The Radio, for what that's worth. Junkie XL was a huge disappointment, just dull in the center. I like this year's Yeah Yeah Yeahs more than last year's, but don't love anything on it. Rihanna alb has a couple of great tracks and the rest is reasonably good but she's got the exact same emotional wail on song after song after song and I don't want to hear more than a few at a time. Strokes were kinda um (though overall I don't see how their album's worse than the Arctic Monkeys'). Jewel's Goodbye Alice In Wonderland made me gag, and its version of "Fragile Heart" is soggier and dumber than the one she did three years ago (which isn't to say she's untalented). Thursday pack layers of beauty into their sound, but it's still not a sound I swoon for. Ashley Parker Angel has a male whine I like a lot lot lot lot less than the girlpop equivalent. (Strangely, the Max 'n' Luke songs and the Matrix songs weren't the best on the alb.) Those have been my last-minute attempts to get myself a better P&J album list, since this year's is nowhere near as good as last year's. Still, a ballot that can't find room for the Alan Jackson and the Toby Keith can't be too bad. (Xhuxk, it may be true that after multiple listens the Jackson will go bland on me, but I haven't had the chance to make that experiment.) The Lady Sovereign might well have had a shot as my token grime-hip-hop hybrid vote, but I only heard it once. Liked it but thought it was a bit too normal in its hip-hopness, was longing for more "Ch-Chings." (Not that "normal" is necessarily bad, mind you.) Have yet to hear the Gnarls alb. Today will bring Grizzly Bear and Band Of Horses to the corral, though I don't have high hopes. I might also run to the library for a quick pickup of the Kelis, though I can get real tired of her blunderbuss toughness.

Re: Chuck Again Again

[mcatzilut.livejournal.com]

I might be expressing myself ineloquently here - partially because I'm using the definition of shtick I grew up with, which might differ from the popular use. So let me try to just explain what I meant: I feel like "Not Ready" relies upon something outside the music to provide it's emotionally potency. Generally - that's definitely not a problem - obviously we have to read music in the context of our lives. But "Not Ready" isn't about me, it's about the Dixie Chicks - and it isn't a flattered song for them, either. The song (+ the movie) makes them sound very bitter. So I meant shticky in the sense that 2LiveJews is shticky, or even in the sense that Eminem's 'Mosh' is shticky - posy, affected, etecetera.

(I'm not trying to say I don't like "Not Ready" because I love it. I think some of the lines are heart-breaking. But something seems really ugly to me about it, too. And "Easy Silence" seems to deal with the same issue, but much more subtly.)

(Of course, I turned the song on to listen while I worked out my feelings - and now I want to take everything back I just said, because it's amazing. But I know that there is something there that isn't attracting me - and maybe that's a good thing. Maybe it *is* the chorus that's bothering me.)

Re: Chuck

[koganbot]

Chuck, I think Mordy's saying that votes for Blood Mountain are (at least to some extent) delayed votes for Leviathan.

Re: Predictions for my own list

[mcatzilut.livejournal.com]

Thursday was the number one on my Jackin Pop ballet. I'm happy to see that there are other people who get what's going on with them, Frank, even if you don't swoon for it. (I do, and I betcha that has as much to do with my personal music history as anything else.) At some point I'd love to talk Thursday with you. It helped that their shows are the most amazing things I've ever been to in my life.

Agreed about the Buckingham album. And I'm shocked it's placed so high with critics so far - because it's weird, but not much else seems to be going on with it. And compared to Fleetwood (even to their last album couple years ago) it seems to fall so much flatter. And I think people are responding to the Arctic Monkey's lyricism far more than the Strokes.

Btw: Tell me what you think about the Band of Horses album. When I saw them open for Iron & Wine last year, I thought they were the worst thing I've ever heard in my life. The album only lessoned that reaction slightly.

Chuck Again

[(Anonymous)]

I've never had much use for Cohen, Anthony, though Frank taped me a few songs once that I didn't hate I guess. (Best thing anybody ever said about him is when Christgau compared his singing to the "Da Da Da" guy in Trio, but Trio were about a zillion times more fun). And still don't really care about any Dylan stuff in the past three decades (though I like some of it okay, and it's conceivable that might also apply to his '06 album if I actually hear it someday, though I have no intention to actively pursue doing so.) Tom Waits I just find one of the most unbearale singers, with one of the most unbearable (and uninteresting, and unconvincing) shticks in human history. Some of his earlier stuff when he didn't lay the shtick and shticky singing on so heavy (like "Ol' 55" or whatever it was called) I can still tolerate, though. I think I own like one 10-song-or-so greatest hits album by him on vinyl, and another one a few songs longer on CD, which seems like plenty.

Re: Predictions for my own list

[koganbot]

Haven't gotten to Band Of Horses yet; I'm in the midst of Grizzly Bear but wouldn't be surprised if my response to the Horses is similar to my response to the Bear - which is that all this floating-harmony shtick* isn't bad in principle (see Four Freshmen and Beach Boys), and characterless vocals are maybe the point, but they ought to be translucently characterless rather than dull and characterless, and a slow and lurching rhythm might be interesting, but not slow and plodding. (However, this is after only one listen. Plenty of fine people with impeccable morals and fine grade-point averages like Grizzly Bear.)

*by which I mean "a characteristic that they've turned into a predictable routine"

What Edd Hurt Wrote (in an email)

[(Anonymous)]

hmm, for Country albums, I'd go with:
Dixie Chicks
Vince Gill
Rosanne
Mindy Smith
Willie's Cindy Walker
Kristofferson
Guy Clark
Solomon Burke
Neko Case
Keith Urban
for the top 10 full-length; Gill might even beat out the Chicks.

Paul Burch
Neil Young
Todd Snider
Jenny Lewis
Dierks
the next five; and I might be fooled, and Dierks might sneak into the
top 5
and I'd say the next five would be something like
Sugarland
Wreckers
Tres Chicas
Drive-By Truckers
Alejandro Escovedo (or The Duhks; the Mammals, to my ears, are better,
but
I don't see them getting a lot of votes). I guess I think that the
critics
are going to go for the stuff that overlaps with alt-detritus more than
they
will Jackson or Gentry or Watson or any of them. (see below). Trent
Willmon and maybe even Radney Foster might sneak into the top 20, I
could
see that, definitely.

Alan Jackson is the hardest to predict. His record seems polarizing in
a
weird way, one that I find hard to understand. Could be he places a lot
higher than I think he will, but I see him down in the 20s somewhere.
Ditto
Montgomery Gentry, who have become something of a joke, too bad since
at
their best they probably were the most rocking group of the year, at
least
in country music.

And I dunno--Old Crow Medicine Show? Hold Steady? Ray Wylie?
Kane/Welch/Kaplin? maybe top 20? To my ears, Jamey Johnson and Darryl
Worley both made really strong records this year, but I don't see
either one
placing anywhere near the top. Or Blaine Larsen's, which I have to
admit,
listening to it again recently, isn't anywhere near as strong as his
first
record.

Re: What Edd Hurt Wrote (in an email) (from Chuck)

[(Anonymous)]

I think Jackson will do extremely well in the Nashscene poll myself -- way better than Urban or Dierks or Willmon. There's mixed feelings about his record I suppose (from insane uber-purists who think he sold out from country), but I'm guessing the people who hate it wouldn't have voted for it anyway, and he's been showing up in overall top 10s like he never has before. (I have mixed feelings about the record myself, and didn't vote for it though I definitely considered it, but it's still the best album I've ever heard from him.) I could see him finishing as high as 2nd place in the country poll, behind the Dixie Chicks, but then again the No Depression type stuff always takes me by surprise, since I'm so out of that loop on it. And I had no idea til this week that people were liking the Vince Gill so much -- sounds like another quantity before quality/size equals substantiality thing, just like the Waits, but then again I've never cared about Vince Gill and his empty pretty voice, so what do I know? (The damn thing might even be *good*, but I'll be damned if I'll ever take the time to find out.) Can't imagine Hold Steady will place in Nashville (does anybody really consider them country? I don't, not at all, and my genre defintion perimeters are as wide as anybody's on earth. Did they get reviewed in No Depression, for instance?) Don't know who Paul Burch is, and I'm drawing a blank on Kane and Kaplin (was that a collaboration with Gillian Welch; is that what Edd's saying? If so, I never heard of it.) I wish I would have listened to the new Sugarland album myself; like their first one, and bet I would've liked this one, too, had I heard it, but I kept forgetting it existed. (Also, wasn't there a SheDaisy CD this year? If so, that one just slipped by me, totally sight unseen.)

Re: What Edd Hurt Wrote (in an email) (from Chuck)

[koganbot]

I was vehemently expressing my disappointment with the new SHeDAISY all over the country thread at one point; I wouldn't be surprised if I overstated my case (had listened to a library copy so can't go check this moment); Shanks is on it in a big way, which is why I was expecting it to be better. Has something of the bright sound that he used with Bon Jovi; too few good songs, too little restlessness/inventiveness, words seemed routine. Maybe a lot of this isn't Shanks's fault, but then I also think the Osborn sisses have had good ideas for multiple interacting voices in the past that weren't (os)borne out on this alb. But then there's something in me that wants to go "Not as good as Ashlee, Hilary, and Lindsay, ha ha" anytime Shanks works with someone who's not a teenpopper. Thought that the one Wreckers track (the big hit) that he had anything to do with - played on it and produced it but didn't write it - was one of their less good songs.

Vince Gill is barely in my earshot. I mean, I've heard him, but tend not to remember what I've heard. Do you think there'll be any support for George Strait, people honoring an old master?

[koganbot]

I'm realizing that upthread I kept writing "won't make the top five" for all sorts of performers, which means that not only will no one win the poll, no one will place in the top five!

[alexmacpherson.livejournal.com]

Joanna Newsom is great! It's nowhere near as impenetrable as one might think (well, lyrically maybe, but I was brought up on a diet of Tori Amos lyrics: impenetrable wordage is not something I fear), I have had 'Emily' stuck in my head all day. Fun? It's not dour or dull or depressing. I don't think it really exists on the fun/non-fun continuum. It's playful, in places - 'Monkey And Bear' could totally be a Disney song.

Nelly Furtado is going to be hit v hard by vote-splitting! JT as well, but less so.

I realised that the Fergie album is really really good, once I got over my prejudice against her.

Re: What Edd Hurt Wrote (in an email) (from Chuck)

[(Anonymous)]

Looks like Hold Steady actually got plenty of support on No Depression ballots (which are linked below; I haven't seen a link for the actual overall results, but Hold Steady will be way up there, looks like.) Nice to see a smattering of Shawn Camp votes, and at least one Dale Watson vote. It's somewhat shocking to see so many votes for a half-assed Tom Petty album and dime-a-dozen Black Keys album (both of which I reviewed in Spin) along with, yeah, that mediocre Drive By Truckers album. Support for the boring Rosanne Cash album is sadly no suprise:

http://www.nodepression.net/blogs/grant/

Re: What Edd Hurt Wrote (in an email) (from Chuck) (from Edd)

[(Anonymous)]

no, it's Kevin Welch/Kieran Kane and Fats Kaplin, Chuck, and it's called "Lost John Dean." It placed #49 in No Depression's poll.

Paul Burch is one of the worthier folks on this interesting comp called "The Other Side: Music from East Nashville," on Red Beet. Todd Snider's the big star on it. Burch does a pretty nice tune about meeting John Peel, who "walks in on the arm of Laura Cantrell." it's interesting, of course it's alt- and has its genteel side, but I find it pretty listenable.

Vince Gill. I saw this new year's eve special here on PBS w/ country fan Garrison Keillor and Vince, walking around down by the Ryman, and Vince goes into Tootsie's and sings a chorus with Chuck Mead of BR-549. And I mean I talked to all these guys who've been around far longer writing than I, like Friskics-Warren and David Cantwell and such, during the Americana fest last fall, and they were all up on the Gill. took me by surprise. I saw Gill play Letterman's show or one of them, and he was good, real good, but the guy he reminded me of was Glen Campbell in his later years--a very very skilled guitarist and an obviously good singer who seemed somehow distanced from his own persona. maybe I am wrong. it's 4 discs and the other night I heard some of the "rockin'" disc and what it reminded me of was Louisiana swamp pop. good, but to my ears mild. I have not heard all of it. But perhaps the sheer bulk of the thing will get him over, as Chuck says, and perhaps the "return to roots" by a guy who has always been really respected as very very skilled guitarist and obviously good singer might get him a lot of votes?

Hold Steady is popular in Nashville--but the Drive-By Truckers get far more love here, in fact the staff at Nashville Scene, folks like my editor there and Lee Stabert, who is a fine writer for the paper, love them a lot more than I do. (Saw them years ago w/ lousy sound and probably in a lousy mood myself in Memphis, and not a good gig, so that has colored my perception of them ever since, which I know is neither here nor there. And Nashville isn't the whole world, of course.)

Might be envisioning a higher ranking for Neko Case, too, than she actually will get. I admit it, I love that record--it got me thru the last, loss-filled year. But it does seem to me that's one record that crosses the alt- and "country" wide/not-wide barrier as well as any I heard last year. and re Alan Jackson, I suspect I might be wrong there; as I say, that's the one I can't figure out. the reviewer for ND came down hard on it, but that might be a quirk of the alt- mentality in that it's uncomfortable with something so pop and mediated and, well, genteel.

I didn't mention Old Crow Medicine Show, who a lot of folks I know think is great. never even heard it! Kristofferson's record made #27 in ND's poll. I think it's one of the worst records I have ever heard. the one thing I know, my taste ain't always exactly universal, and thank God for that.

Newsom (from Edd)

[(Anonymous)]

well, I gotta say that I got paid to write about Joanna Newsom. and that I earned every penny. I don't get it. the Van Dyke Parks arrangments are skillful, and they often get someplace. but as a singer, she does the same thing over and over and over again, and she has zero melodic sense and even less harmonic savvy. I am old-fashioned, OK, so I just hear this as failed jazz singing or something, and the sensibility is pure prog-rock, a genre I just try to forget I ever liked when I was 14. sure, I like some prog at my age, but it's almost always best when there are no words, no Breton folk tales. the criticism that her voice is eccentric means less to me, got no problem with that. "Ys" seems like this elaborate structure built on top of a very tiny basic idea, and believe me, I read the "libretto" and attended to the thing with full attention over 3 listens--I earned every penny, as I say. not that many pennies, either. stupefyingly boring, the hype of the year. she might even be talented, but are not there better and less repetitive ways to express it? it's one of those records that people seem to think breaks free of the moorings that have, you know, held musical thinking/performance together for all these years--her vision and all that. I give Parks credit for making it almost bearable, and as I say I am old-fashioned, but I have no patience with shit like this. Sharon thinks the same, and so I am not alone here. I would've made this comment shorter, but goddam it, she's everywhere and that record goes on forever. feel free to direct me to what I am missing in my fogeyness, except that I already sold the thing and bought a sixpack.