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The West is the best?
Nov. 5th, 2008 08:07 pmInteresting stuff from Andy Gelman, saying basically that the whole country tended to shift in the same amount towards the Democratic presidential candidate in comparison to 2004, though of course in a place like Wyoming, for instance, such a shift might pass your attention by, since the state still went heavily for the Republican. (Arkansas and Louisiana were the two major exceptions, they actually shifting to the Republican, while Alaska, Kentucky, Arizona, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Massachusetts stayed about the same as 2004, all but the last of those being strong Republican states in presidential contests.) But looking more precisely, I see that the states where percentages tended to jump a bit more to Obama were Hawaii (by a lot), Indiana, Utah, Delaware, North Dakota, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, Vermont, and Idaho. And of those ten, six of them are from what I'm calling the West (the plains and mountains and west of the mountains): Utah, North Dakota, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, and Idaho. Three of these - Utah, Nebraska, and Idaho - got lost in the analytical shuffle because they were going from overwhelmingly Republican to merely very strongly Republican. But still, the West is shifting more.
(Also, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight thinks the final tally, once all the late returns and early voting and absentee ballots are added up, will show Obama winning by about 6.5%, not 5%.)
(Also, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight thinks the final tally, once all the late returns and early voting and absentee ballots are added up, will show Obama winning by about 6.5%, not 5%.)
You're not a person until you say goo-goo
Nov. 5th, 2008 11:14 amHow my predictions went:
( I missed the lady by only a hair )
( New agey, with guns )
( Opinion polls )
( Nevada WTF )
( Colorado referenda )
( I missed the lady by only a hair )
( New agey, with guns )
( Opinion polls )
( Nevada WTF )
( Colorado referenda )
Let's see. Some polls have closed somewhere, yes.
In further GOTV news, two sweet young things together - perhaps they were a couple - came to my door in Obama regalia, and I told them I had already voted, and they looked at me as if I had just said the most wonderful thing in the world.
( Interlude in which I blame a political party for what workers not necessarily affiliated with said party do poorly but without malice )
My brother says that when he went to vote in Arlington, Virginia there was an Obama lawyer present, should anyone have had any questions. Only three people were in line however, so I'm guessing that questions at that particular moment were few.
In further GOTV news, two sweet young things together - perhaps they were a couple - came to my door in Obama regalia, and I told them I had already voted, and they looked at me as if I had just said the most wonderful thing in the world.
( Interlude in which I blame a political party for what workers not necessarily affiliated with said party do poorly but without malice )
My brother says that when he went to vote in Arlington, Virginia there was an Obama lawyer present, should anyone have had any questions. Only three people were in line however, so I'm guessing that questions at that particular moment were few.
Virtually no line, but the place was packed with voters. This was because Colorado has gone to paper ballots, which on the voting end makes things vastly more efficient. They give you a ballot, find a seat for you (it took 15 seconds for one to open up) at one of the many long tables, and you fill out the endless ballot (scads of referenda and judges to be voted on).
Over half of Colorado had already voted in advance, however; about 7,000 more Dems than Repubs, according to the radio (didn't mention independents), which isn't a big difference.
I didn't see any poll workers for candidates, though they may have been there. When I walked in, a fellow standing near me was being advised by an election official as to what to do, since his name wasn't on the list. The fellow thought that, since he's moved around a lot, he might be listed in some other precinct, and the election official was giving him advice on how to find out. Of course, the fellow could have been one of the people whose names had been purged. I hope he's persistent. Provisional ballot is a last resort, and I hope he tries other options first.
Over half of Colorado had already voted in advance, however; about 7,000 more Dems than Repubs, according to the radio (didn't mention independents), which isn't a big difference.
I didn't see any poll workers for candidates, though they may have been there. When I walked in, a fellow standing near me was being advised by an election official as to what to do, since his name wasn't on the list. The fellow thought that, since he's moved around a lot, he might be listed in some other precinct, and the election official was giving him advice on how to find out. Of course, the fellow could have been one of the people whose names had been purged. I hope he's persistent. Provisional ballot is a last resort, and I hope he tries other options first.
Sorry that I've been derelict in responding to the many inquiries I've received as to how I will vote on Referendum N on the 2008 Colorado ballot. Here, to refresh your memory, is Referendum N itself.
( Referendum N Itself )
( How I intend to vote )
( denominated spirituous, vinous, malt, or otherwise )
( Referendum N Itself )
( How I intend to vote )
( denominated spirituous, vinous, malt, or otherwise )
Campaign Worker Lies To Voter
Nov. 3rd, 2008 10:04 pmGot a hanging leaflet from Obama on my door handle. It gave detailed descriptions of what can be used as an I.D. when one goes to vote. And I got another phone call from an Obama worker, hurriedly reading a script that among other things said that the race was narrowing and that therefore my vote was crucial. I do not believe that the race is narrowing, certainly not in Colorado, maybe in Pennsylvania, though all the signs there are that Obama isn't losing anything, just that McCain is gaining undecideds, which won't win the state for him since Obama is already over 50%.
( Obama victory predicted )
( Obama victory predicted )
Finally got around to checking my Voicemail and discovered five messages, one a hangup, one offering me a great new deal on satellite TV, and three from the Obama campaign (which had basically been leaving the phones alone over the month, allowing the McCain campaign all the robocall rope it needed to hang itself): one call just making sure I knew the polling address, the poor woman apologizing for not being sure how to pronounce "Baha'i" (my polling place is the Metro Denver Baha'i Center, which she pronounced "BA-ha," like the peninsula). Then the next day another call from an Obama worker, this woman being a lot more thorough than the last, said the address, got "ba-HIGH" right, spelled out the street name B-A-Y-A-U-D (is only four blocks from where I live, so I know it well), told me the voting hours, gave me a number to call if I needed a ride, reminded me to be sure to bring an I.D.
Then got a robocall from a cheerful Joe Biden, asking me to vote for change.
As FiveThirtyEight has been consistently reporting, the Obama campaign has the people on the ground, an enthusiastic voter base, and basic competence, which ought to be enough to counter the usual Republican ability to turn out more voters and to disenfranchise those likely to vote Democratic.
( North Dakota could be interesting )
Then got a robocall from a cheerful Joe Biden, asking me to vote for change.
As FiveThirtyEight has been consistently reporting, the Obama campaign has the people on the ground, an enthusiastic voter base, and basic competence, which ought to be enough to counter the usual Republican ability to turn out more voters and to disenfranchise those likely to vote Democratic.
( North Dakota could be interesting )
Ground Game
Nov. 2nd, 2008 07:00 pmWas visited by an Obama canvasser today. Told me that on Tuesday he was going to take me by the scruff of the neck and drag to the polls. No, he was very polite, just wanted to find out if I was doing a mail-in ballot (which I'm not) and that I knew where my polling station was. Also asked if I could volunteer on Election Day, but I told him I had a class.
I've never been visited by a McCain canvasser, though I've been bombarded by robocalls telling me all sorts of twisted things about Obama, about the crooks he hangs with and that he's going to raise my taxes so that he can give my money to people less deserving. They don't seem to realize that I am the less deserving, and I've got my hand out.
I've never been visited by a McCain canvasser, though I've been bombarded by robocalls telling me all sorts of twisted things about Obama, about the crooks he hangs with and that he's going to raise my taxes so that he can give my money to people less deserving. They don't seem to realize that I am the less deserving, and I've got my hand out.
Buy High, Sell Low
Oct. 24th, 2008 10:50 amStrange that stock investors seem to be reacting to news that confirms that we're in a recession. Did anyone who pays attention to the economy think that we weren't in one? I wish I had money to invest and enough cushion to sit on my investments, on the assumption that what I buy will be higher in five years.
I live in Colorado, a battleground state, so I've been getting at least one anti-Obama robocall a day from the Republicans; a week ago the theme was that he hangs with terrorists, now it's his inexperience, and of course every few days it's that he's going to raise taxes. Interesting, though: a month ago I was getting a lot of anti-Udall robocalls - Mark Udall being the Democrat running for Senate - mainly about his nefarious plans for spending my money, but those calls have disappeared. Perhaps the anti-Udall money has simply shifted to television. But I'm also wondering if the Republicans have conceded the Senate seat while still thinking the presidential run is in play.* There've been stories of the McCain campaign pulling out of the TV market here, but McCain will be in my city today, and my guess is that even if he's drastically cutting back in Colorado, he doesn't want to make it appear as if he's giving up on any more states.
( Obama is being kind of a shithead too )
( How Nevada could decide the election )
*FiveThirtyEight has Udall ahead by 8.8 and Obama ahead by 6.3, which isn't that big a difference.
I live in Colorado, a battleground state, so I've been getting at least one anti-Obama robocall a day from the Republicans; a week ago the theme was that he hangs with terrorists, now it's his inexperience, and of course every few days it's that he's going to raise taxes. Interesting, though: a month ago I was getting a lot of anti-Udall robocalls - Mark Udall being the Democrat running for Senate - mainly about his nefarious plans for spending my money, but those calls have disappeared. Perhaps the anti-Udall money has simply shifted to television. But I'm also wondering if the Republicans have conceded the Senate seat while still thinking the presidential run is in play.* There've been stories of the McCain campaign pulling out of the TV market here, but McCain will be in my city today, and my guess is that even if he's drastically cutting back in Colorado, he doesn't want to make it appear as if he's giving up on any more states.
( Obama is being kind of a shithead too )
( How Nevada could decide the election )
*FiveThirtyEight has Udall ahead by 8.8 and Obama ahead by 6.3, which isn't that big a difference.
The International Political Multiplier
Oct. 7th, 2008 05:07 amA thought about current political messages:
Owing to the Internet, information and misinformation propagates much more quickly than it previously had, which is how lies that are easily refutable such as Obama being Muslim nonetheless can gain traction and get wide play. However, what it also means is that messages that are tailored to a particular target audience can quickly find their way to other audiences. In times past if you ran an ad in Nebraska that you expected would appeal to swing voters in Nebraska but would alienate swing voters in New York, the ad was likely to stay in Nebraska. Now it might be on YouTube or in the blogosphere within the hour. If a McCain official in southwest Virginia writes a racist column about Obama, it can be internationally known in no time.
Of course, that doesn't mean everything will get propagated. Only a small amount of what gets said achieves critical mass and gets heard by more than a few. But it means that what happens in southwest Virginia doesn't necessarily stay in southwest Virginia.
Owing to the Internet, information and misinformation propagates much more quickly than it previously had, which is how lies that are easily refutable such as Obama being Muslim nonetheless can gain traction and get wide play. However, what it also means is that messages that are tailored to a particular target audience can quickly find their way to other audiences. In times past if you ran an ad in Nebraska that you expected would appeal to swing voters in Nebraska but would alienate swing voters in New York, the ad was likely to stay in Nebraska. Now it might be on YouTube or in the blogosphere within the hour. If a McCain official in southwest Virginia writes a racist column about Obama, it can be internationally known in no time.
Of course, that doesn't mean everything will get propagated. Only a small amount of what gets said achieves critical mass and gets heard by more than a few. But it means that what happens in southwest Virginia doesn't necessarily stay in southwest Virginia.
