You're not a person until you say goo-goo

[koganbot]

How my predictions went:

National (overestimated Obama by about 1 point, underestimated McCain by 2, overestimated Barr-Nader by 1), state by state (missed North Dakota by a mile, Indiana by a hair, seem to have everything else, though North Carolina and Missouri may still be too close to call; underestimated Obama's electoral win by 8; was wrong that Arizona would be tighter than predicted, right that Montana would be tighter than predicted), general analysis (overestimated the return to McCain in the Midwest [hence blew Indiana], overestimated the black swell in the south [didn't get any states wrong, but Virginia was closer than anyone predicted and Georgia wasn't as close as I'd hoped (though not all votes there have been counted)], was right that McCain's negativity hurt him disproportionately in the Wild West,* though was wrong about where this would manifest itself (thought Obama'd take North Dakota but he lost solidly, whereas he contested Montana and romped in Nevada), Senate (my only prediction was Republican Chambliss getting forced into a runoff in Georgia; this vote is still in the air).

*Wild West - which I'm distinguishing from the Coast - tends to vary from state to state, with Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho voting as red as they can, whereas New Mexico, Colorado, Montana, and Nevada are getting bluer. This rising blueness can be explained by an increase in Latinos in three of those four states and an increase in the propensity of the Republicans to alienate them, also an increase in cosmopolitan technocratic whites in Nevada and Colorado, also clusters of people sharing attributes and attracting others with similar cultural leanings: New Mexico and Colorado and maybe even Montana attract post-hippie types, though often with libertarian leanings, so there's a new-age tinge, with guns; Nevada attracts WTF types, with guns; whereas Mormons/LDS still tend to align themselves conservatively, which has an impact on Utah and Idaho.

Opinion polls seemed reasonably accurate in their predictions, overstated Obama a bit in Virginia, understated him a bit in the Midwest, were wrong about North Dakota being in play but right about Montana, and greatly underestimated the Obama support in Nevada. In the Senate contests they botched Alaska (after Stevens' conviction the polls showed him losing by about 8 points) and Oregon (even if it turns out that Smith loses, he wasn't supposed to make it so close) but were OTM elsewhere (Minnesota being a tossup and North Carolina a definite win for the Dems and New Hampshire a strong win). I think they probably overstated Democratic pickups in the House by a little, but not all returns are in.

Also, not only did Obama take Nevada by a greater percentage than he took North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, he'd have won the election if he'd taken Nevada and lost all the rest of those. (Well, he'd have tied in the electoral college, but he'd have won the tie-breaker in the House of Representatives.)

In local referenda, some anti-union initiatives were beaten back; being a fertilized egg isn't enough to make you a man, or a person, even; you can gamble more places than you could previously; and it seems as if government can still act affirmatively, though this is still too close to be called for sure. Also, Denver voted to go into debt some more.

Comments

[katstevens.livejournal.com]

But is Colorado's constitution still full of historical character?

[koganbot]

Naw. They can now vote to open saloons, if they want to, while leaving the spirit evaluation to the Feds.

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

You were right about the run-off -- it will be held Dec. 4. Many fewer voters and, with the right amount of support, probably a better chance to fight Chambliss -- though a prof said today that the victories of yesterday will make it MORE likely for GA to go more solidly Republican.

So, still time to keep G'ing O The ol' V. (I kind of want to atone for my non-involvement in physical gruntwork of this campaign by helping out in Georgia by phone. Though I did give a substantial [for me] amount of money to two races that are now too close to call and will require recounts -- Al Franken in MN and Darcy Burner for Rep in Washington, yay!)

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

*Though it is too close to call, the reason the Washington race hasn't been called is because not all votes have been counted.

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

Philly voted for more debt. And I'm really quite upset about Prop 8 in California (also donated for that one), but I think this is something that will need more rigorous undoing at a national level anyway. And maybe it will spur more interest in taking up gay rights as, shock, a CIVIL RIGHTS cause moreso than it it is already (maybe in part by getting straight people who care about it like me to actually DO something besides armchairing it?).

Bottom line: Don't bend over backwards to "understand," just legislate these fuckers until they're dead and it's a moot point. On a related note, I notice I have a LOT of anger coming out of the election, despite my relief and genuine happiness -- might write more about this later.

[edgeofwhatever.livejournal.com]

Arizona and Florida passed amendments banning gay marriage as well; this is severely harshing my election buzz.

I think the problem is that there are far fewer straight people who actually care about it than we like to think -- there were enough people with enough confidence in the left to tip Florida and California for Obama, but not to tip them for gay marriage, which I guess is not surprising when you consider that Obama has enough confidence in the left to be Obama, but not to be for gay marriage.

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

Actually, those figures are related -- African-Americans disproportionately favored Prop 8 in California, and the high black voter turn-out led to a lot of pro-Obama/pro-Prop 8 votes.

[koganbot]

overestimated Obama by about 1 point, underestimated McCain by 2

Actually, I think it's going to end up more like I overestimated Obama by half a point and underestimated McCain 1 point.