Campaign Worker Lies To Voter

[koganbot]

Got a hanging leaflet from Obama on my door handle. It gave detailed descriptions of what can be used as an I.D. when one goes to vote. And I got another phone call from an Obama worker, hurriedly reading a script that among other things said that the race was narrowing and that therefore my vote was crucial. I do not believe that the race is narrowing, certainly not in Colorado, maybe in Pennsylvania, though all the signs there are that Obama isn't losing anything, just that McCain is gaining undecideds, which won't win the state for him since Obama is already over 50%.

Might as well make a prediction, as I belong to no office hence can't join an office pool:

Obama wins 53% to 45%, with Barr and Nader combined getting 2%. (This probably overestimates the 3rd party vote, but 1% might underestimate it, and I don't feel like typing halves and quarters.)

Opinion polls average out to Obama leading by 7%. I think that on the one hand Obama will lose one to two points from tentative Obama Republicans, not owing to any Bradley effect but just because some of the people who are used to voting Republican on a national ticket will at the last minute find themselves unable to vote for a Dem. And I read a piece recently about how people who refuse to participate in opinion polls tend to run 1% more conservative than people who participate.

But this will be more than compensated for by (1) greater enthusiasm among Dem voters (more likely to vote, more willing to stand in line in the rain, etc.), (2) much better get-out-the-vote effort by the Obama people, (3) undercounting by the opinion polls of voters who only have cell phones (likely to be younger and to swing towards Obama), and (4) unprecedented turnout by African-Americans. So, Obama by 8%.

But these effects won't play out evenly across the country. I assume that in the Midwest, Republicans returning to McCain will give him the victory in Indiana and Missouri, and will make the race tighter in Ohio. But I'm predicting that in North Carolina and Florida the underestimated number of new black voters will be larger than the undecideds going Republican. Same will be true in Virginia, but that's pretty solid Obama anyway. Won't be enough to carry Georgia, but will force the Republican senator there into a runoff.

Out in the wild libertarian West, there's less party identification, and demographics have been pushing New Mexico and Colorado to the Dems recently. And I don't think you'll find much movement in Nevada for McCain, so I say it goes Obama too. Arizona is too much of a stretch, and so's Montana, though I predict those'll run tighter than the opinion polls have them.

OK, but there's one more to think about: North Dakota. What is it? Midwest, Plains, West? I'll take a leap and say that Obama enthusiasm and independents/Repubs offended by the negative McCain campaign push this state into the Obama column. Every prediction should have a fun longshot, and this is mine.

So, based on no expertise other than what I've borrowed online, I predict the electoral vote goes Obama 356, McCain 182.

What about Republican efforts to disenfranchise voters through purges of voter lists and challenges at the polling stations? Of the places where this seems likely to happen, I think Obama has too big a lead in Colorado and Nevada for it to make a difference, and he has poll workers on the ground to help prevent some of it. I'm projecting Indiana for McCain anyway, which leaves Ohio, which is likely to vote Obama but the discussion may end up in court - after which, it goes to Obama, and anyway with Pennsylvania and Virginia he won't need Ohio (but some of the congressional candidates might).

Florida? What possibly could go wrong in Florida?

I'm being uncharacteristically optimistic in my assessment, but I might as well. And even if Obama loses all the tight ones I gave him (North Carolina, Florida, North Dakota, and let's toss in Nevada too), and if he loses Ohio, he still wins 286 to 252. And no one is projecting him to lose Ohio or Nevada, so with those two he's back up to 311 to 227.

Comments

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

I am just fascinated by the paranoia that most of my friends have about this election. I've been hugely comforted by the polls in the past few weeks, but there's still this idea of "jinxing" something, or the vote being corrupted. I basically say if anything happened to stop Obama from winning this race, it would have to be national fraud on a scale likely unprecedented in US history, barring some crazy shit that happened in olden times and such. I'm more concerned about the Senate races.