"The worst case scenario is that we have an extremely scary day"

[koganbot]

Dean Baker opposes the bailout, thinks we're better without it than with it.

Paul Krugman thinks the bailout is necessary, and that this relatively poor bill is nonetheless likely the best the Dems could get.

I think Setser and DeLong think, like Krugman but unlike Baker, that something must be done, though I don't know their opinion on the specific bill that was unveiled this morning.

Meanwhile, four major bailouts/takeovers/nationalizations in Europe and one in the U.S. in the last 24 hours.

And the 1-month t-bill is at 0.04%, TED spread at 3.5. I have little idea what that means, but people who do are gaping in astonishment.

Comments

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

Statistically, Dems up for re-election were far more likely to vote no than yes. I've seen others quoted as being against it in principle, though that isn't really a statistical analysis or anything.

Those 13 who voted no from the Dem side won't budge -- it's just too unpopular in an election season.

McCain is stuck in the middle of a shitstorm at the moment, I think -- all of his rhetoric has been that he is helping unite bipartisan support, and as far as I know he still plans on voting "yea" himself (he announced he was this morning, and that bipartisan agreement would happen, even if he had to "swallow hard" and vote yes). But of course what he has down in the paper in the morning could very well be the opposite of what's in the evening edition.

I think the bad economy is going to reflect primarily on the Bush White House, not the Democratic Congress, who simply haven't been in long enough to get tied to this mess quite as directly. I wouldn't be surprised if even more seats get overturned to Dem in the Congressional elections now that the Bail Bill has failed the House. (Democrats who voted "no" are actually in a weirdly strategic position -- it was clearly the Republicans who "sank" the legislation, with the direct inverse of votes to the Dems, but the 30% Dem dissenters get to wash their hands of involvement with the bill.)

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

And if anyone who's undecided has even the remotest interest in looking at the House Republican plan [/naive], they'll find that it's incomprehensible. Get rid of the capital gains tax! Yeah!

[koganbot]

Makes sense to me that if businesses are in trouble because they're losing capital the way to shore them up is to cut the capital gains tax. What could be more reasonable than that?

[koganbot]

By "Dems up for reelection" (they all are) you actually mean Dems in swing districts. But that's only 13 of the 95 Dem nay votes, and those 13 are likely to be in conservative districts. So what about the other 82? If the plan shifted left, to something like the Swedish bailout/nationalization in the early '90s, would enough of those shift over?

[skyecaptain.livejournal.com]

Woops, yes, misspoke bigtime! So I guess a better response is "I don't know."

[carsmilesteve.livejournal.com]

hehehe, this may be the most sensible comment i've read on this whole damn mess anywhere :)