![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
koganbotI guess if you'd asked me "Are there more quarterback runs and scrambles in the last couple of years?" I'd have said, "Uh, hmm, yeah, I guess so; yeah, I think I've noticed that; it's more than just Baltimore."
But this piece last week by Ben Solak, incl. statistics, really is an eye opener ("The Simple Math Behind the Colts' Decision to Turn to Sam Ehlinger") – says not only are there more scrambles, but also that the scrambles on average are more effective than passing plays. And that for the only passer – Patrick Mahomes – whose passes are more effective than the average scramble, they're not more effective than his own scrambles.
Anyway, my mouth dropped open. This is new information, way beyond what I may have vaguely noticed. Not that I'm the one who looks at football with any kind of educated eye. But as Solak himself says, "These numbers challenge our understanding of football."
Ben's biggest caveat: you can't simply choose to scramble as much as possible – scrambles work best when the defense is not only set for a pass but when the play unfolds as a pass play, so defenders are really not in position to stop a run.* So (for instance) the Bears' Justin Fields scrambles the most of any quarterback but his scrambles are relatively less effective because he's not that good a passer so defenders don't have to buy in as much on his pass threat. (He's still 9th best per scramble, as he's a really good runner.)**
Anyway, read the piece.
Kyler Murray 2-point conversion (click on pic.twitter.com/LdwcnQQr8S)
A couple of Jalen Hurts scrambles analyzed by Shane Haff (click on pic.twitter.com/cexPX7IURS)
*"... not only set for a pass but when the play unfolds as a pass play," Solak doesn't actually differentiate the setting and the unfolding, but it makes sense to.
**Also, one thing Solak doesn't bring up one way or another is whether scrambles tire out a defense more than any other type of play does. I don't know, but my guess is that scrambles tire out a defense hugely. I remember watching a clip of defenders from the Sixties saying how much they hated playing against notorious scrambler Fran Tarkenton. I don't think Tarkenton was trying to gain yards running, though; he was just keeping the play going so that he could make a good pass.
But this piece last week by Ben Solak, incl. statistics, really is an eye opener ("The Simple Math Behind the Colts' Decision to Turn to Sam Ehlinger") – says not only are there more scrambles, but also that the scrambles on average are more effective than passing plays. And that for the only passer – Patrick Mahomes – whose passes are more effective than the average scramble, they're not more effective than his own scrambles.
Anyway, my mouth dropped open. This is new information, way beyond what I may have vaguely noticed. Not that I'm the one who looks at football with any kind of educated eye. But as Solak himself says, "These numbers challenge our understanding of football."
Ben's biggest caveat: you can't simply choose to scramble as much as possible – scrambles work best when the defense is not only set for a pass but when the play unfolds as a pass play, so defenders are really not in position to stop a run.* So (for instance) the Bears' Justin Fields scrambles the most of any quarterback but his scrambles are relatively less effective because he's not that good a passer so defenders don't have to buy in as much on his pass threat. (He's still 9th best per scramble, as he's a really good runner.)**
Anyway, read the piece.
Kyler Murray 2-point conversion (click on pic.twitter.com/LdwcnQQr8S)
Craziest 2-point conversion we've ever seen! @K1
— NFL (@NFL) September 18, 2022
📺: #AZvsLV on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/FVZamC6mMP pic.twitter.com/LdwcnQQr8S
A couple of Jalen Hurts scrambles analyzed by Shane Haff (click on pic.twitter.com/cexPX7IURS)
Jalen Hurts' rushing ability doesn't just affect the defense on running plays. Faced with a 3rd and 16, Hurts scores a TD with 2 consecutive scrambles against the #Jaguars defense.
— Shane Haff (@HAFFnHAFF_TPL) October 5, 2022
Full Video: https://t.co/4BRg0YVSYi pic.twitter.com/cexPX7IURS
*"... not only set for a pass but when the play unfolds as a pass play," Solak doesn't actually differentiate the setting and the unfolding, but it makes sense to.
**Also, one thing Solak doesn't bring up one way or another is whether scrambles tire out a defense more than any other type of play does. I don't know, but my guess is that scrambles tire out a defense hugely. I remember watching a clip of defenders from the Sixties saying how much they hated playing against notorious scrambler Fran Tarkenton. I don't think Tarkenton was trying to gain yards running, though; he was just keeping the play going so that he could make a good pass.
CROSSPOSTS: HTTPS://KOGANBOT.LIVEJOURNAL.COM/387024.HTML
Other Eagles runners also benefit
Date: 2022-11-01 06:35 pm (UTC)Justin Fields
Date: 2022-11-08 04:41 am (UTC)(Click pic.twitter.com/EaiuoLqHYO)
Re: Justin Fields
Date: 2022-11-10 11:07 pm (UTC)Anyway, that I know anything about this is because I read and listen to what other people say; here's Ben Solak's new video about how the Bears' have changed their offense to center on designed runs for Fields.
*[EDIT: "In last week’s loss to the Dolphins, Justin Fields had the highest expected points added on scrambles of any quarterback in a single game over the past 10 years" (Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer, 11/10/22). So, fooled or not, the Dolphins couldn't rein in the scrambles.]