Not-So-Solid South

South and southwest Texas, scattered bits of Oklahoma, Louisiana's northern fringe, almost all of Mississippi, the bulk of Alabama (minus the very top and the Mobile area), the eastern fringe of Arkansas, southwest and northeast Georgia, South Carolina (most of it), southeast Virginia, central Kentucky, south central Ohio, the Baltimore area, most of New Jersey, all but the western part of New York, Vermont's middle third, and bits of Arizona and New Mexico and Colorado: what these have in common, according to a NY Times map, is that they all increased their vote for Obama compared to 2008 (while most of the country was decreasing its vote for him). And if we click on the 2008 map, most of those counties had shifted towards Obama in comparison to Kerry four years earlier (therefore they weren't shifting back this year from a Republican shift four years ago).

Since I was eyeballing a nondetailed map, which I'm assuming was county by county, I certainly missed things. E.g., I wouldn't be surprised if some of the small blue dots in Arizona came from counties with most of the state's population. Southeast Louisiana and those parts of Arizona seem to be the only two places that shifted back from a Republican shift four years ago (McCain, being from Arizona, got a larger vote there than a Republican would have normally).

( Speculation regarding demographics )

Turning corners and breathing room versus no end in sight and kicking the can down the road

David McHugh of the Associated Press ("After 3 bumpy years, Europe turns corner on crisis"):

The worst of Europe's financial crisis appears to be over.

European leaders have taken steps to ease the panic that has plagued the region for three turbulent years. Financial markets are no longer in a state of emergency over Europe's high government debts and weak banks. And this gives politicians from the 17 countries that use the euro breathing room to fix their remaining problems.

McHugh does go on to say that Europe's economy is likely to get worse before it gets better, then quotes Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London, as saying "coming waves of turmoil will be less severe." (Article seems to be conflating the receding fear of imminent defaults and a Eurozone breakup, on the one hand, and nonimmediate prospects on the other.)

Tim Duy, on his blog Tim Duy's Fed Watch ("Europe's Back In The Spotlight"):

We are now looking at another year of dismal growth in the Eurozone. This crisis seems to have no end in sight.

To be sure, a little relief today as the Greek parliament pushed through the latest austerity package, throwing the bailout back to the Troika. But the relief was short-lived....

I am guessing that the Troika increasingly sees no way out for the Greek economy, at least under the current policy path. Does anyone really expect this to be anything more than just another effort to kick the can down the road? Everything to date has simply intensified what Ambrose Evans-Pritchard described as the "Greek death spiral."

( Spain too )

To be precise, Duy isn't predicting a default or breakup, just another year that's worse than the last, with unemployment that's already depression-size in Greece and Spain getting worse.

( My understanding (or not) )