Date: 2008-11-04 05:18 pm (UTC)
koganbot: (Default)
From: [personal profile] koganbot
Here's an excerpt from Mark Blumenthal on the subject:

2) The networks rarely "call" an election on exit poll results alone. The decision desk analysts require a very high degree of statistical confidence (at least 99.5%) before they will consider calling a winner (the ordinary "margin of error" on pre-election polls typically uses a 95% confidence level). They will also wait for actual results if the exit poll is very different from pre-election poll trends. So a single-digit margin on an exit poll is almost never sufficient to say that a particular candidate will win.

(And here's Blumenthal's essay on exit polls from 2006.)
This account has disabled anonymous posting.
If you don't have an account you can create one now.
HTML doesn't work in the subject.
More info about formatting

Profile

koganbot: (Default)
Frank Kogan

December 2025

S M T W T F S
 123456
7891011 1213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031   

Most Popular Tags

Style Credit

Expand Cut Tags

No cut tags
Page generated Jan. 2nd, 2026 04:20 pm
Powered by Dreamwidth Studios