Date: 2012-08-03 06:27 pm (UTC)
koganbot: (Default)
From: [personal profile] koganbot
OK, reading Duy further, he's not one of the optimists. He calls yesterday an epic policy failure of the ECB. What he says, interpreting one passage:

Translation, I think: After the rescue fund is activated, and if the risk premia related to reversibility of the Euro remains high, then and only then will the ECB, reluctantly, buy bonds of affected nations. It is interesting that they acknowledge the seniority issue. Here I assume that the ECB intends to signal that they would share in any subsequent debt restructurings. It seems, however, that this might limit their willingness to buy said bonds, implying a less-than-aggressive response.
And

Also, if I am reading this correctly, if the ECB will only buy Spanish debt after Spain has asked for and received a EFSF/ESM program, then I think they intend to let the financial crisis engulf Italy until that nation also asks for an EFSF/ESM program. Is this correct? Because if it is, it doesn't sound like much of a firewall. And if they encourage the idea they will only help after the crisis intensifies to the point in which a bailout is necessary, won't such a policy increase the already troublesome financial fragmentation in the Eurozone?
So, if Duy's interpretation is correct, ECB action is dependent on governments acting first, which from Duy's point of view means further indecision and fecklessness.
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Frank Kogan

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